MY REACTION TO THE OSCAR NOMINATIONS FOR 2008. . .AND MY PREDICTIONS FOR THE NEXT ACADEMY AWARD WINNERS!!!
February 15, 2009
THE ACADEMY'S INFATUATION WITH THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON IS BEYOND MY COMPREHENSION. THE MOVIE LED THE WAY WITH 13 NOMINATIONS. I AM ELATED THAT SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE GOT THE SECOND MOST NOMINATIONS. . .WITH 10!
MORE. . ON THE BEST PICTURE CATEGORY. . LATER.
LET'S BEGIN WITH BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS. I AM SURPRISED THAT KATE WINSLET WAS NOT NOMINATED IN THIS CATEGORY. . INSTEAD. . SHE WAS NOMINATED FOR BEST ACTRESS FOR HER TREMENDOUS PERFORMANCE IN THE READER. AS I MENTIONED IN MY PREVIOUS ENTRY, HAD SHE BEEN NOMINATED FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS,SHE WOULD HAVE WON. . HANDS DOWN. BUT ..NOW, THE SCENARIO CHANGES. WITH WINSLET NOT INCLUDED IN THIS CATEGORY, THE BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS CATEGORY IS WIDE OPEN. VIOLA DAVIS IS DESERVING. . HOWEVER SHE HAS MERELY ONE SCENE IN DOUBT. GRANTED, IN THIS ONE SCENE WITH STREEP SHE IS TREMENDOUS! HER LIMITED SCREEN TIME COULD HURT HER CHANCES, ALONG WITH THE FACT THAT AMY ADAMS, PORTRAYING THE YOUNG NUN IN THE SAME MOVIE COULD CAUSE THEM TO CANCEL EACH OTHER OUT. HOWEVER, KEEP IN MIND. . IN 1998, JUDY DENCH WON BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS PLAYING QUEEN ELIZABETH IN SHAKESPEARE IN LOVE WITH VERY LIMITED SCREEN TIME. THEREFORE, THOSE OF YOU CHEERING FOR DAVIS HAVE THAT TO KEEP THE FAITH. TARAJI P. HENSON FROM THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON DOES NOT DESERVE TO WIN. . .HOWEVER. . THAT DOESN'T MEAN TO SAY. . SHE WON'T. THE ACADEMY IS GOING TO WANT TO REWARD THIS FILM . . .TO JUSTIFY GETTING THE MOST NOMINATIONS. I BELIEVE BUTTONS' BEST CHANCES OF WINNING OSCARS ARE IN CINEMATOGRAPHY, AND MAKE-UP. MARISSA TOMEI IS MOST EFFECTIVE AS THE SINGLE MOM/STRIPPER IN THE WRESTLER, BUT SHE IS NOT AS GOOD AS SHE WAS IN HER LAST FILM IN WHICH SHE WAS ALSO NOMINATED IN THIS CATEGORY. . NAMELY, IN THE BEDROOM. I DO NOT SEE HER WINNING. I AM PERSONALLY CHEERING FOR PENELOPE CRUZ IN VICKY CRISTINA BARCELONA. TWO THIRDS OF THIS WOODY ALLEN COMEDY HAS ELAPSED BEFORE HER FIRST SCENE. ONCE SHE EMERGES. . WITH THE AID OF ALLEN'S BRILLIANT SCREENPLAY, SHE STEELS EVERY SCENE. HER CHARACTER'S RANTING AND RAVING FROM ONE SENTENCE TO ANOTHER IN SPANISH AND THEN. . ENGLISH. . IS HILARIOUS. WHAT A WHACKO SHE PORTRAYS!! THE MOVIE IS VERY FUNNY BEFORE HER CHARACTER ARRIVES. . AND THEN, IT BECOMES HYSTERICAL. SHE DESERVES TO WIN! I HAVE A HUNCH. . .THEY'LL GIVE IT TO VIOLA DAVIS.
THE EASIEST CATEGORY TO PREDICT, IS BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR. AS I'VE POINTED OUT BEFORE, HEATH LEDGER IS A SHOE IN! HE DOES GIVE A RIVETING PERFORMANCE AS THE JOKER AND THE FACT THAT HE DIED WILL GIVE THE ACADEMY THEIR FIRST CHANCE SINCE PETER FINCH IN 1976'S NETWORK TO POSTEUMULOUSLY AWARD HIM. I WOULD VOTE FOR PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN IN DOUBT. I CAN'T DISAGREE WITH JOSH BROLIN'S NOMINATION FOR MILK. I AM SURPRISED HE GOT THE NOD. HE DOES A GREAT JOB SHOWING THE FRUSTRATION OF HIS CHARACTER FIGHTING POLITICALLY WITH PENN'S LEAD. ROBERT DOWNEY JR.'S NOMINATION FOR TROPIC THUNDER DISAPPOINTS ME. TOM CRUISE, FROM THE SAME FILM, DESERVED THIS NOMINATION! MICHAEL SHANNON. . FOR REVOLUTIONARY ROAD. . IS DESERVING. . AS WELL. HE IS VERY CONVINCING AS THE METALLY DISTURBED SON OF KATHY BATES.
WITH KATE WINSLET BEING NOMINATED IN THE BEST ACTRESS CATEGORY FOR THE READER, IT MAKES IT A 2-WOMAN RACE. MERYL STREEPS' PORTRAYAL OF THE MOTHER SUPERIOR IN DOUBT AND WINSLET ARE NECK AND NECK. STREEP HAS WON TWICE; AND THIS IS HER 15TH NOMINATION. THIS IS WINSLET'S 6TH NOMINATION AND SHE HAS YET TO WIN. THEREFORE, I THINK SHE WILL EDGE OUT STREEP. . AND THE FACT THAT SO MANY OF US THOUGHT SHE'D BE NOMINATED FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS. .. BECAUSE OF LESS SCREEN TIME THAN THE BOY WHO PLAYS THE LEAD IN THE READER. .WHO RALPH FIENNES PORTRAYS AS AN ADULT. . I DON'T THINK THIS WILL HURT HER BECAUSE IT'S A SIMILAR SITUATION TO ANTHONY HOPKINS IN 1991'S SILENCE OF THE LAMBS. HE ALSO HAD LESS SCREEN TIME THAN NORMAL LEADS. . .BUT WON ANYWAY. ALSO WORKING IN WINSLET'S FAVOR IS THAT SHE GAVE A COMPELLING PERFORMANCE IN REVOLUTIONARY ROAD. . OPPOSITE DICAPRIO. DON'T COUNT STREEP OUT! THIS PERFORMANCE OF THE MOTHER SUPERIOR IS PHENOMENAL. SHE IS SCARY-GOOD IN THIS ROLE. MY THIRD CHOICE WOULD BE JOLIE FOR THE CHANGLING. ANNE HATHAWAY FOR RACHEL GETTING MARRIED AND MELISSA LEO IN FROZEN RIVER HAVE NO CHANCE.
IN THE BEST ACTOR CATEGORY, HERE AGAIN. . IT'S A TOUGH CALL. I'M VERY DISAPPOINTED THAT CLINT EASTWOOD DIDN'T GET NOMINATED FOR GRAN TORINO. HE DESERVED IT OVER RICHARD JENKINS FOR THE VISITOR, FRANK LANGHELLA FOR FROST NIXON AND BRAD PITT FOR THE CURIOUS CASE OF BENJAMIN BUTTON., I ALSO COULD MAKE A CASE FOR LEONARDO DICAPRIO IN REVOLUTIONARY ROAD. . .WHICH LEAVES US WITH MICKEY ROURKE FOR THE WRESTLER, AND SEAN PENN FOR MILK. PENN HAS BEEN NOMINATED SEVERAL TIMES AND WON FOR MYSTIC RIVER. I HOPE THAT WINNING ALREADY. . DOES NOT HURT HIS CHANCES. I WILL NOT BE DISAPPOINTED IF HE WINS. . .BECAUSE IT HAD TO BE AN INCREDIBLE CHALLENGE FOR PENN TO PLAY THE GAY SAN FRANCISCO POLITICIAN. HOWEVER. . .MY VOTE GOES TO ROURKE! HE PLAYS A TRAGIC FIGURE IN THE WRESTLER. .QUITE PATHETIC. . YET ENDEARING AND SYMPATHETIC. THE SCENES WITH HIS DAUGHTER EVAN RACHEL WARD ARE VERY TOUCHING. IT'S A SAD STORY AND YET. . .HE ADDS HUMOR TO HIS CHARACTER, PARTICULARLY IN THE SCENE WORKING THE DELI COUNTER. ROURKE'S OWN COMEBACK STORY IS COMPELLING. THE ACADEMY LIKES TO REWARD THAT!
THIS IS THE FIRST TIME IN MANY, MANY YEARS THAT I CAN RECALL THE DIRECTORS OF THE 5 NOMINATED FILMS FOR BEST PICTURE. . ALL BEING NOMINATED FOR BEST DIRECTOR. IN THE HISTORY OF THE ACADEMY AWARDS. . .ON THE AVERAGE. . .ONCE EVERY 8 TO 10 YEARS, A FILM WILL WIN BEST PICTURE. . BUT IT'S DIRECTOR WILL NOT WIN BEST DIRECTOR! THIS ACTUALLY HAS OCCURRED SEVERAL TIMES IN THE LAST 15 YEARS AFTER QUITE A LONG SPELL OF IT "NOT" OCCURRING. THIS WILL NOT BE THE CASE THIS YEAR.
DANNY BOYLE WILL WIN BEST DIRECTOR. . .AND HIS FILM, SLUMDOG. . SHOULD AND WILL WIN BEST PICTURE!!
USUALLY, THE MOVIE THAT GETS THE MOST NOMINATIONS WINS BEST PICTURE, WHICH FAVORS BENJAMIN BUTTON OVER SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE. . .BUT. . .AS RECENTLY AS 2004, THE AVIATOR GOT MORE NOMINATIONS THAN MILLION DOLLAR BABY, BUT EASTWOOD'S BOXING GEM. . WON. THE VERY NEXT YEAR. . .CRASH WON BEST PICTURE. .DESPITE BROKEBACK MOUNTAIN RECEIVING MORE NOMINATIONS.
MILK AND THE READER ARE DESERVING OF A BEST PICTURE NOMINATION BUT NEITHER FILM HAS A CHANCE OF WINNING. AS I HAVE INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ENTRIES. . FROST NIXON DOES NOT BELONG! HERE IS WHERE THE SUPPORTERS OF THE DARK KNIGHT. . SHOULD BE UPSET! THE DARK KNIGHT DID RECEIVE 8 NOMINATIONS. . AND WILL MOST ASSUREDLY WIN ONE. . WITH LEDGER. IT ALSO COULD UPSET BENJAMIN BUTTON IN MAKE-UP. IF SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE WINS IT WILL MARK ONLY THE 7TH TIME SINCE 1950 THAT A FILM WINS BEST PICTURE WITHOUT ONE MEMBER OF IT'S CAST BEING NOMINATED IN AN ACTING CATEGORY. THAT'S EXACTLY WHAT I THINK WILL HAPPEN THIS YEAR.
THE OSCAR CEREMONY WILL TAKE PLACE ON SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 22. AS YOU KNOW. . I WILL BE CONDUCTING ALL BETS ARE OFF. . THAT NIGHT. .AND THE DAYS TO FOLLOW. .FROM SPRING TRAINING IN GOODYEAR, AZ. WHEN I RETURN, I WILL CRITIQUE THE CEREMONY AND GIVE YOU MY THOUGHTS ON WHERE I AGREE AND/OR DISAGREE ON THEIR SELECTIONS.
AS ALWAYS. . .I LOVE YA', CLEVELAND!!!!
